Counterfactual Model
What If DX1 Had Expanded Beyond California?
A counterfactual impact model based on historical testing data and staged adoption assumptions. Figures are modeling estimates, not certified regulatory findings.
How The Model Works
Five steps combine baseline fuel data, DX1's performance inputs, and staged adoption rates to produce annual and cumulative avoided emissions estimates.
Fuel Baselines
Published EIA/IEA diesel consumption figures for each geography and year.
DX1 Performance
Reported percentage reductions from historical CEE Laboratory testing.
Adoption Curves
Staged market penetration from initial California adoption to global rollout.
Annual Impact
Year-over-year compound calculation: baseline × adoption rate × reduction %.
2026 Totals
Cumulative avoided emissions and fuel savings across the full modeled period.
CO₂ Avoided
Baseline Emissions × Adoption Rate × 7.00%
Fuel Saved
Baseline Consumption × Adoption Rate × 7.24%
Pollutant Avoided
Baseline Pollutant × Adoption Rate × Reduction %
California Scenario
1994 → 55% adoption by 2026
Potential CO₂ Avoided
77.6M
metric tons
Carbon Credit Value (illustrative)
$1.16B – $7.76B
Fuel Saved
9.0B gallons
Hydrocarbons Avoided
1.22M tons
CO Avoided
2.69M tons
NOx Avoided
1.77M tons
PM Avoided
365,000 tons
California State
Adoption: 0.5% → 55%
United States Scenario
1996 → 48% adoption by 2026
Potential CO₂ Avoided
787M
metric tons
Carbon Credit Value (illustrative)
$11.8B – $78.7B
Fuel Saved
91.6B gallons
Hydrocarbons Avoided
12.4M tons
CO Avoided
27.3M tons
NOx Avoided
18.0M tons
PM Avoided
3.7M tons
United States
Adoption: 0.2% → 48%
Worldwide Scenario
2000 → 33% adoption by 2026
Potential CO₂ Avoided
2.21B
metric tons
Carbon Credit Value (illustrative)
$33.2B – $221.4B
Fuel Saved
257B gallons
Hydrocarbons Avoided
35.8M tons
CO Avoided
78.8M tons
NOx Avoided
51.9M tons
PM Avoided
10.7M tons
Global Markets
Adoption: 0.1% → 33%
Most Realistic Rollout
A staged approach: California proof-of-market, then national expansion, then global rollout — the most credible path for DX1 adoption.
California
Proof-of-market period — California fleet and commercial adoption.
United States
National expansion through fleet distribution and commercial programs.
Global
International rollout across major vehicle markets and mining sectors.
2.13B CO₂ Avoided
Modeled cumulative potential impact across all scenarios.
2.13B CO₂
California
Proof-of-market period — California fleet and commercial adoption.
United States
National expansion through fleet distribution and commercial programs.
Global
International rollout across major vehicle markets and mining sectors.
2.13B CO₂ Avoided
Modeled cumulative potential impact across all scenarios.
Combined Rollout Totals
2.13B
Potential metric tons CO₂ avoided
2.13B metric tons
CO₂ Avoided
247B gallons
Fuel Saved
34M tons
Hydrocarbons Avoided
75M tons
CO Avoided
49M tons
NOx Avoided
10M tons
PM Avoided
Carbon Credit Value: $31.9B – $213B
Illustrative only — at $15, $50, and $100 per metric ton
Potential Carbon Credit Value
Using three illustrative carbon credit prices, the combined rollout scenario represents a significant potential value range.
$15/ton
$31.9B
Combined rollout
$50/ton
$106.5B
Combined rollout
$100/ton
$213B
Combined rollout
Carbon credit values are illustrative only and are not live market prices. Any carbon credit issuance or environmental claim would require independent verification under an accepted methodology.
Cleaner Air &
Public Health
CO₂ is the climate impact — but public health benefit comes primarily from reducing particulate matter, NOx, hydrocarbons, ozone formation, carbon monoxide, and smoke opacity.
The estimates below are screening-level ranges derived from EPA and WHO air quality health impact models. They are indicative only and would require formal epidemiological modeling for verification.
Without DX1
Baseline pollutant levels
With DX1
Reduced emissions profile
California Only
Screening-level estimate
5,000–20,000
avoided premature deaths
U.S. Scenario
Screening-level estimate
50,000–200,000
avoided premature deaths
Worldwide Scenario
Screening-level estimate
250,000–900,000
avoided premature deaths
Combined Rollout
Screening-level estimate
225,000–850,000
avoided premature deaths
These are screening-level estimates requiring formal epidemiological modeling for verification. Not certified public health findings.
Modeling Notes & Disclaimers
Figures are modeling estimates based on historical testing data and staged adoption assumptions.
Figures are not certified regulatory findings from any government body.
Figures are not guaranteed product outcomes or performance warranties.
Carbon credit values are illustrative only and are not live market prices.
Any carbon credit issuance or environmental claim would require independent verification under an accepted methodology.
Public health estimates are screening-level only and require formal epidemiological modeling for scientific validation.
DX1 performance inputs are derived from historical testing — results in other conditions may vary.